India's Fertility Rate Drops Below Replacement Level for First Time

Official data from the Sample Registration System shows the national total fertility rate at 1.9, down from 2.3 a decade ago, with sharp regional differences Bihar at 2.9 and Delhi at 1.2.

Experts point to education, urbanization, higher child-rearing costs, and better contraception access as key drivers, following patterns in other middle-income countries.

While population momentum will sustain growth for decades before a peak, the shift prompts questions about future labor shortages, aging populations, and economic challenges.