Kenya's
power reserve margin fell from 20.73 percent in January to 3.34 percent in
June, driven by rising demand outpacing local generation capacity, according to
the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
This leaves little buffer for maintenance or breakdowns, especially during evening peaks when wind and solar output dips, prompting more imports from Ethiopia—set to double to 400 MW by December.
A freeze on new power agreements since 2018 and unstable renewables have worsened the strain, with many highlighting how high costs hinder job creation compared to neighbors like Ethiopia and Tanzania.