Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has reignited longstanding tensions with Kenya over Uganda's access to the Indian Ocean, attributing the impasse to Kenya's frequent presidential changes and issuing a stark warning of potential regional conflicts if unresolved. Speaking during a radio interview in Mbale City on November 10, 2025, while on the campaign trail, Museveni lamented that negotiations—spanning nearly 30 years—keep resetting with each new Kenyan administration, frustrating efforts to secure permanent, direct access to ports like Mombasa for trade and defense. Museveni drew a vivid analogy to underscore his frustration:
"I am on the top floor of the block, and then you say the compound belongs to the ones on the ground floor. This is madness." He emphasized Uganda's landlocked status as a strategic vulnerability, arguing that denying sea access hampers economic exports, navy development, and national security. "That ocean belongs to me. Because it is my ocean. I am entitled to that ocean. In the future, we're going to have wars," he declared, framing it as a continental entitlement rather than a bilateral favor.This isn't the first flare-up. Talks on infrastructure like the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) extension and the Eldoret-Kampala oil pipeline have repeatedly stalled, which Museveni cited as symptoms of the deeper access issue. He specifically blamed the cycle: "This one stops, another comes... Why can’t the agreement be made permanent if they know they will keep changing presidents? I am tired of negotiating."Kenya's Response: Downplaying the RhetoricKenya's Ministry of Foreign Affairs swiftly dismissed the threats as metaphorical, with Principal Secretary Korir Sing'oei stating on November 12 that Museveni "was speaking metaphorically rather than to suggest that there was anything... done in the manner in which he described it." Foreign Affairs CS Musalia Mudavadi reinforced this on November 14, assuring that Kenya adheres to international law and will not block landlocked neighbors' access, while highlighting ongoing cooperation on projects like the SGR and Kisumu-Uganda expressway. The Kenyan shilling remained stable against the Ugandan shilling post-remarks, signaling minimal economic jitters.Broader Context: International Law and Regional EchoesUnder the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), landlocked states like Uganda have a recognized right to access the sea through transit states like Kenya, via reciprocal agreements on infrastructure and non-discriminatory passage. However, Museveni's push for "direct" or "entitled" access—potentially implying military or sovereign rights—stretches beyond this, echoing Ethiopia's controversial 2024 Somaliland port deal that irked Somalia. Uganda routes about 80% of its imports through Mombasa, making reliable access economically vital, but Kenya views it as a privilege under bilateral pacts, not an unconditional right.
Social Media and Public BacklashThe remarks exploded online, with Kenyans responding in memes and jabs—suggesting Kenya's National Youth Service (NYS) could "handle" Uganda, or quipping that traffic officers outmatch Ugandan forces. Ugandans were divided: some backed Museveni on national interest, others urged focus on internal issues. General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Museveni's son and military chief, amplified the heat by sharing a provocative regional map online.Despite the bluster, a Ugandan military delegation visited Kenya on November 14 for KDF benchmarking, hinting at underlying cooperation amid the saber-rattling. As East Africa's integration deepens under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), these talks could pivot toward collaborative ports or pipelines—but Museveni's frustration underscores the fragility of landlocked-coastal dynamics.
Aspect | Uganda's Position | Kenya's Position |
|---|---|---|
Access Rights | Entitlement to Indian Ocean for trade/defense; permanent deals needed | Facilitated via agreements; no blocking, but not "ownership" |
Key Projects | SGR extension, oil pipeline stalled by leadership changes | Ongoing cooperation; adheres to UNCLOS transit rights |
Risks Highlighted | Future wars if unresolved; navy-building constraints | Metaphorical rhetoric; stable bilateral ties |
Economic Impact | 80% imports via Mombasa; gold export potential | Shilling stable; mutual benefits in regional trade |