In early July, amid escalating legal proceedings against Bolsonaro for his alleged role in a 2023 coup attempt following his 2022 election loss to Lula, Trump sent a blistering public letter directly to Lula. The letter, which Trump also posted on Truth Social, demanded an immediate end to what he called a "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro, describing the charges as an "international disgrace." To back this up, Trump announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports—far steeper than tariffs imposed on other nations that week—along with sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, whom Trump accused of enabling censorship and authoritarianism. The move was part of a broader wave of tariff letters Trump sent to 22 countries, but Brazil's was uniquely personal, tied to his affinity for Bolsonaro, whom he once called a "straight shooter."
Lula fired back forcefully, calling the letter "blackmail" and vowing reciprocity under Brazil's Economic Reciprocity Law. He emphasized Brazil's sovereignty: "Brazil is a sovereign country with independent institutions that will not accept being abused by anyone." Brazilian sectors like beef, coffee, and citrus exporters braced for impact, as the tariffs threatened to hike U.S. consumer prices.This wasn't just rhetoric; the tariffs took effect on August 1, 2025, exacerbating inflation concerns in the U.S. at a time when Trump's approval ratings were already dipping (down to around 41-44% by late summer, per aggregated polls).Prosecutors pressed forward with the case, indicting Bolsonaro and allies for plotting a "state of siege" to overturn the 2022 results, including wild allegations like poisoning Lula. In September, Brazil's Supreme Court extended the investigation, ignoring U.S. pressure.At the UN General Assembly in September, Trump ad-libbed praise for his "great chemistry" with Lula during a bilateral meeting, despite the ongoing feud. A month later, in October talks, Trump trailed off when asked about Bolsonaro: "I always thought he was a straight shooter, but…"The tariffs bit harder than expected. U.S. prices for Brazilian goods rose 20-30% in some categories, fueling voter discontent amid a prolonged government shutdown and off-year election losses in early November (e.g., Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia, seen as a "referendum" on Trump's policies).By mid-November, with Bolsonaro's trial nearing a verdict and U.S. midterm pressures mounting, Trump blinked. On November 14, he issued an executive order rolling back most of the Brazil tariffs, citing "grocery price relief" as the rationale—though White House insiders admitted it was a retreat from a "signature policy." This came days after poor off-year election results, where Trump publicly blamed the shutdown but privately acknowledged the tariffs' role in GOP losses.The turning point arrived on November 22, 2025: Brazil's Supreme Court convicted Bolsonaro of coup-related charges, sentencing the 70-year-old to 27 years in prison—a term analysts linked partly to defiance against Trump's meddling. When reporters ambushed Trump with the news, his response was curt: "That's too bad." No outrage, no renewed threats—just a shrug. This tepid reaction, combined with the tariff rollback, signaled what outlets like the NYT called an "all but admitted defeat.
